Gartner 17th Annual Asia Pacific Semiconductor Roadshow 2011
After the shock of the Japanese earthquake, and continued US and European financial issues, semiconductor supply and demand remains unbalanced. Foundry overcapacity, excess inventory, and weakening economic sentiment have the potential to derail industry growth and once again threaten the historic $300 billion revenue mark in 2011. Semiconductor revenues will be weak into 2012 but as the industry reacts by quickly cutting investment, it sets the stage for a strong comeback in 2013.
Semiconductor vendors are grappling with these issues, while tapping into key emerging markets that will help drive the next growth cycle. Gartner will evaluate the key markets that continue to define future growth for the semiconductor industry, as well as evaluate the impact on the supply chain. Gartner provides insights into developing markets such as solar PV, LED lighting and will also investigate the impact of new wireless technologies in the mobile consumer market, and ultimately how all this will impact the semiconductor market opportunities and challenges for the next 4-5 years.
Session 1: Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast, 2010- 2015
Andrew Norwood, Research Vice President
With the industry mostly recovered from the Japanese earthquake, it now faces increasing headwinds – excess inventory that had been built through the first half of the year, and market fear over government debt levels. Fear of a double-dip US recession continues to mount as markets react to troubling news. Gartner will explore the latest findings and examine the industry’s short and long-term growth potential.
- Which electronic equipment and chip types will drive growth in 2011 and beyond?
- How have Gartner’s assumptions changed for key markets such as PCs, cell phones, and memory?
- What is the DRAM and NAND outlook for supply and demand though 2012?
Session 2: Media Tablets – Threat and Opportunity
Ben Lee, Principal Research Analyst
Media tablet is the one new opportunity for semiconductors that has universally attracted the attention from almost all vendors since 2010. In this session, we will analyze the threat and opportunity that media tablets present to the competing electronics and semiconductor suppliers.
- What is driving the explosive growth of tablet computing?
- How will tablets impact PCs and consumer electronics?
- How can electronics companies other than Apple benefit from this trend?
Session 3: Wi-Fi - Future Platforms for Growth
Mark Hung, Research Director
During the past decade, Wi-Fi has seen tremendous acceptance in the market. This growth has been primarily driven by notebook PCs and, more recently, Smartphones. We will examine the future trends in these existing devices, explore the new growth opportunities in other major platforms, and discuss how the key semiconductor suppliers are positioning themselves to capture the next wave of growth.
- How do the Wi-Fi requirements differ for the major platforms?
- What are the next waves of growth beyond PCs
- Who are the semiconductor players best positioned for the next stage of growth in Wi-Fi and Smartphones?
Session 4: The Future of the LED market
Masao Kuniba, Research Director
The LED market is set to grow from Back Light Units (BLUs) for LCD TVs and other LED lighting systems replacing traditional incandescent light bulbs, HID (High Intensity Discharge) lamps and fluorescent tubes. LEDs offer responsiveness, efficiency and lifetime advantages. Gartner will analyze how the market dynamic is changing from LED BLUs to LED lighting including the future opportunity of OLED market growth.
- What is the outlook for LED lamp/display market?
- How is LED lighting market replacing the traditional lighting systems?
- What is driving OLED penetration?
Session 5: Solar Photovoltaic - China's Emergence as One of World's Largest PV Markets Through 2015
Philip Koh, Research Vice President
The global solar module market is in a period of severe oversupply and rapidly declining prices following reductions in key government subsidies for solar energy and over investment in production capacity. Looking ahead, is China's PV market poised for strong growth? We discuss the outlook for the global solar PV market and examine the impact of the Chinese government's incentive programs that will shape the future growth of the country's PV industry. We also analyze what will be the outlook of the China's PV installation market and its challenges.
- What is the outlook for the global solar photovoltaic market?
- How will China bring new demand to the solar PV industry?
- What is the potential growth for China's PV market through 2015?
Session 6: Semiconductor Manufacturing Outlook
Samuel Wang, Research Director
Semiconductor growth is slowing and capex cuts have been announced during 2011, but how will this impact the aggressive outsourcing plans established at the beginning of 2011, and will there be significant overcapacity and weaker device pricing? Gartner will analyze the outlook for semiconductor manufacturing and the outsourcing market and present the implications for industry participants.
- How will capital equipment spending evolve in 2011 and 2012?
- Is wafer fab equipment sales growth set to slow to a crawl?
- Will outsourced foundry and assembly/test continue to outpace the growth of the overall semiconductor industry?
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