Concurrent session 2c—Modelling: Measuring the scale of organised crime and its impact on governance, security and development

Ms Marcena Winterscheidt, Research Analyst, STATT Consulting Ltd, Queensland

Assessing the scale of organised crime is a complex challenge with no globally agreed metric. Where seizure data was once an indicator, extensive regional corruption renders the measure largely redundant. Economic indicators (while having some utility) fail to go beyond monetary, capturing only the broader impacts of organised crime.

Organised crime is influencing political, economic and social dynamics irreversibly. These offenders act with unprecedented impunity, holding principles of democratic governance hostage to maintain and grow illicit economic interests. Further, organised crime distorts local economies and compromises the security and livelihoods of communities through increases in violent crime and human rights violations.

STATT is working in partnership with regional think tanks to develop a composite index—a multi-dimensional tool for monitoring the evolution, scale and impact of organised crime trends.

The goal of the Organised Crime Index is to provide an independent measure to highlight areas for concern and direct priorities and to help assess whether strategies are working. The Index will augment existing statistics and indices with a range of qualitative data to create a nuanced measure of the entrenchment of organised crime at national and regional levels. Initial efforts to develop the Index draw data from (i) existing international empirical data metrics on trade, development and security (ii) perceptions data from relevant surveys by other institutes, nuanced by (iii) unique qualitative insights drawn by the authors.

The presentation will provide an overview of the rationale and importance of the Index as a global policy-making tool. It will explain the methodology used and present findings from three comparative countries—South Africa, Indonesia and Nigeria, where the Index has been piloted.

The audience will be invited to assess the efficacy of the Index and critically evaluate the methodology, which will form part of an ongoing period of expert and peer reviews of the tool.