CAPA Asia Aviation Summit (15-16 November)

Tuesday 15 November 2016
08:00	Registration
09:00	Chairman's Welcome CAPA – Centre for Aviation, Stephen Pearse
09:05	Host Welcome: Changi Airport Group, Managing Director, Lim Ching Kiat
09:15	CAPA’s Asia Aviation Outlook and Trump reaction and analysis As the world contemplates a Trump White House, CAPA will dissect the implications for Aviation & Corporate Travel: Could international trade protectionism affect business travel? Where to Open skies. Could the Gulf Carriers’ expansion plans be threatened? Could stricter US border security affect inward travel? Could an aggressive stance against China undermine the US airlines’ potential future largest growth markets? CAPA – Centre for Aviation, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison
09:35	Keynote Q and A: The Outlook: ‘One Asia, Many Asias’ - and the challenge to growth Asia is a dynamic region and its airlines exhibit remarkable diversity. They must do so if they are to satisfy the complex and varying needs of the fastest growing large market the world has ever seen. There is simply no precedent for what is happening in Asia. This makes life extremely complex for airlines, airports, leasing companies, financiers and other aviation related organisations. The privately held airlines’ quest for profitability has been aided by lower fuel prices, but intense competition and rising capacity are keeping a lid on gains. Despite Asia Pacific’s high growth rate, and vastly larger order books, for airlines it is among the least profitable regions in the world. This partly reflects individual “strategic” needs to plan for rapid expansion, but also the effects of recent new entry; there are now over 50 LCCs in the region, few of which existed a dozen years ago. At the same time there remain some airlines which are still government supported, with very different planning horizons. How to grow profitably in an environment when growth strategies vary so widely? What risk minimisation strategies are available to investors, lessors and financiers in such a turbulent market? Where is the region’s industry heading? Airline Groups, independent LCCs, new entrants The China market outlook Moderator: CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison Panel Members: BOC Aviation, CEO and MD, Robert Martin Indigo Partners, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, William Franke
*10.20*	*Coffee, Networking & Exhibition*
11:00	Keynote Addresses followed by Q&A Booking.com, Director Strategic Partnerships, Asia Pacific, David Peller Malaysia Airlines, CEO, Peter Bellew
12:00	Panel Discussion: The future of the full service model in Asia Can the full service airline model survive in Asia, amidst rising low-cost long-haul penetration and adoption and pressure on corporate travel? Will multi-brand Airlines Groups dominate Asia within five years? New entrants have reduced cost bases, government backing and financial support. How to compete – or is it time to reinvent the full-service airline business? Should airlines keep buying aircraft? Moderator: Moderator: CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Managing Director, Stephen Pearse Panel Members: ANA, Senior Executive Advisor to the Chairman, Keisuke Okada DVB Bank, Senior Vice President Aviation Research, Albert Muntane Casanova Hong Kong Airlines, Assistant Director Commercial, Michael Burke Malaysia Airlines, CEO, Peter Bellew Philippine Airlines, Senior Financial Advisor, Ian Reid
*13:00*	*Lunch*
14:00	Powering Business Advantage for Airlines: Is big data a panacea? As the Asia travel market enters maturity and growth rates ease differentiation between airlines (and their hubs) comes into sharper focus. Travellers in Asia also have expectations of a high quality experience. Airlines meanwhile sit on vast quantities of potentially valuable customer data, but developing the analytics to improve decision-making capabilities is the big challenge. Personalisation of messaging and collaborating with the right partners is vital. We navigate the opportunities and risks ahead in this session. Moderator: CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Managing Director, Stephen Pearse Panel Members: Adara, VP Sales, Asia, Jonathan Hardy Amadeus, Global Head of Sales & Commercial Travel Intelligence, Didier Mamma HK Express, CEO, Andrew Cowen Sabre, Head of Sales & Business Development, Asia Pacific, John Chapman SITA, President, Asia Pacific, Ilya Gutlin
14:45	The China Opportunity, Transforming aviation & tourism China, thanks to its vast population, has already reshaped tourism goals of many destination countries, with over 50% year on year increases in some cases. But China will also reshape the way the aviation industry works – for example with multiple interest tourism and travel equity acquisitions, usually linked to China’s expected tourism expansion. And as China’s airlines proliferate they are opening new gateways. The growth of China's airlines internationally has been based on mostly outbound traffic flows and has meant sometimes large influxes of new capacity in several markets. As well as being mostly outbound, traffic is typically low yielding and seasonal, making competition for foreign airlines difficult. Subsidy at national and local level also helps distort the market in the short term. Many foreign carriers are seeking partnerships, even acquiring equity, but the big three, Air China, China Eastern and China Southern, are often ambivalent, able to flex their muscles and exercise choices. Meanwhile, there is a flourishing body of new entry from low cost airlines, led by the highly successful Spring Airlines. Which are the markets Chinese airlines will target for growth? Will other airlines/travel groups seek equity purchases globally? How important will LCCs - short and long haul - be in China’s tourist expansion? What are China’s airline partnerships likely to look like in 2025? "One belt one road” connectivity. Aviation could play an enabling role, but how big will the impact be? Moderator: The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Director of Policy, Aviation Policy and Research Center, Dr. Law Cheung Kwok Panel Members: CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Senior Analyst, Will Horton ForwardKeys, Chief Marketing Officer, Laurens Van Den Oever National University of Singapore, Professor of Aviation Law, Alan Tan Spring Airlines, President, Stephen Wang
*15:30*	*Coffee sponsored by KPMG*
16:00	Executive Q&A: Inside Airline JVs - How do they work and how to extract most value from them? There are more JVs involving Asia than any other market. Yet these JVs range significantly in scope of markets and cooperation. This discussion explores how airlines see the strategy, value and potential of JVs. This includes the level of cooperation of JVs, from JVs where one airline flies all intercontinental flights (Singapore Airlines-SAS) to JVs with anti-trust immunity (ANA-United, JAL-American). JVs with Chinese airlines are growing but are still at an early phase. What’s the difference between a revenue-sharing and profit-sharing JV? Are airlines interested in region-to-region JVs like those across the Atlantic or do partners have different interests? Is it a regulatory problem? Asian airlines are typically bigger on intercontinental routes than their foreign peers, but worry a deal may be unfair as their more experienced partner cuts a perceived better deal. How do airline relationships need to evolve to support JVs? What is the role of global alliances? Can they accommodate JVs between members and non-members? What happens when a member is excluded from a JV between other members, or that JV precludes a participating member from codesharing with a member not in the JV? Can there be regional JVs? What is the risk of North America-Asia JVs overlapping with North America-Europe JVs for beyond markets, such as India? Moderator: Seabury Airline Consulting, Partner, John McCulloch Panel Members: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Asia, Assistant Professor, June Lee National University of Singapore, Professor of Aviation Law, Alan Tan Seabury Airline Consulting, Vice President & Delta Air Lines, Former Managing Director Alliances, David Bishko
16:45	Panel Discussion: What do the emerging LCC alliances mean for Asia? Alliances between LCCs are proliferating, further hybridising the model in Asia. Moderator: KPMG, Global Head of Aviation, James Stamp Panel Members: Air Black Box, General Manager Asia Pacific, Mildred Cheong HK Express, CEO, Andrew Cowen Jeju Air, CEO, Ken Choi Jetstar Asia, CEO, Bara Pasupathi
*17:30*	*End of Day*
19:30	Gala Dinner, featuring the CAPA Asia Pacific Aviation Awards for Excellence, Ballroom, Capella Hotel Hosted by

Wednesday 16 November 2016
08:00	CAPA Member Breakfast to be held in Sales Gallery (invitation only)
09:00	Chairman's Welcome
09:05	Panel Discussion: Asia's two leading LCCs Cross Swords Moderator: Peter Harbison, Executive Chairman, CAPA - Centre for Aviation Panel Members: AirAsia X Berhad, CEO, Benyamin Ismail Spring Airlines, Vice President, Jonathan Hutt
10:00	Panel Discussion: What are the next big leaps in airline and travel distribution? Asia's airlines are expanding intercontinental networks at an unprecedented pace. How important is GDS for these new markets? How can GDS facilitate cooperation between a full-service airline and its low-cost off-shoot? Can big data projects increase or improve GDS booking? Can GDS play a role in self-connections? In Asia especially, a generation of travellers is skipping desktop computer bookings for mobile bookings. What are the differences and advantages? Which agencies and airlines are at the forefront? What do airlines want from OTAs and metas? Can this relationship be less hostile than airlines and GDS? What more can it and other NDC initiatives bring? What is Google Flights' footprint in Asia? Can consumers be loyal to OTAs and metas? Moderator: MW Travel Consultancy, Principal, Martin Warner Panel Members: Booking.com, Director, Strategic Partnerships, APAC, David Peller Japan Airlines, VP Marketing & Research Strategy Asia, Akira Mitsumasu Skyscanner, Commercial Director, Asia, Paul Whiteway Travelport, Global Head of Product & Marketing, Air Commerce, Ian Heywood Tripadvisor, Commercial Director, Flights, David Yong
*10.45*	*Coffee, Networking & Exhibition*
11:20	Airline Strategy Boardroom: Do the best opportunities already exist at the edges of your business? Can the airlines' core offering truly be 'disrupted'? And, are ancillaries the surest path for airlines to grow economic returns? Moderator: L.E.K., Global Lead on Aviation, Dan McKone Panel Members: Expedia, VP Transport Partner Services APAC, James Marshall Jetstar Group, Head of Sales, Paul Rombeek Spring Airlines, Vice President, Jonathan Hutt VietJet, Board Member, Chu Viet Cuong
12:10	Market wrap & Analyst Review: Turbulence ahead - when will the good times end? Are we heading into the next downturn - and if so, how long will it last? International capacity has grown strongly, but at the same time, fuel prices are very low. It’s a strange environment - where to next? Consolidation Shifting from airline business to group holding business Moderator: CAPA, Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison Panel Members: BOC Aviation, Head of Strategy and Research, Peter Negline CAPA - Centre for Aviation, Chief Analyst, Brendan Sobie DVB Bank, Senior Vice President, Aviation Research, Albert Muntane Casanova
*13:00*	*Lunch and Conference Close*